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We need to know how Covid-19 emerged so we can stop it happening again

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Especially not because the public, hard-tested evidence is mounting the faster the pace.

Instead, the theory seems to be largely due to several massive coincidences.

First, Wuhan, where the disease almost certainly began in China, is home to China’s largest level 4 biosecurity laboratory, the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). It and two other laboratories in Wuhan were doing research on coronaviruses, some of it in bats. The WIV sequenced the genetic code of the best-known ancestor in bats with SARS-CoV-2, a virus called RatG13. It’s 96.2% identical to the novel coronavirus that caused the pandemic. One of the WIV’s leading researchers, Shi Zhengli, is called “Bat Lady”.

Second, three WIV employees fell ill in November 2019, just before the well-known outbreak began. They needed hospitalization, the coverage said. (But we don’t know for which disease. We also don’t have access to samples taken from them when they were sick or to the results of SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests after they were sick.) World Health The The Organization (WHO) report on the matter, based on data provided by the Chinese government, presented a different conclusion. The staff health monitoring program at the three laboratories in Wuhan showed no positive antibody tests or records of Covid-19 diseases in the weeks leading up to December 2019.

Finally, there is a third coincidence. The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the key to virus prevention and detection, relocated its laboratory in Wuhan on December 2, 2019. It is also noted that the lab has been relocated to a location near the Huanan Seafood Market, the exotic animal trading hub that is believed to have played an important role in the early spread of the virus. The move took place just six days before the first patient began to develop symptoms of Covid-19, according to China’s report. (He is, according to the WHO report, an accountant who works for a family business without being known to have attended crowded events, contact with animals in the “wet market,” or exotic trips to the wild. These facts suggest that he may have it in town, maybe from someone else).

These three pretty big coincidences advance laboratory leak theory and mean it is not gone yet. CNN has said of Western intelligence officials that they cannot “disprove” or prove the idea. These coincidences are perhaps why it is in this hinterland – never permanently exposed, never proven. Your solution is like “Occam’s razor” – the idea that the simplest explanation is the most likely.

But none of this is solid or even convincing evidence that a laboratory leak has occurred. This evidence can exist and be over-classified within the government that owns it. However, since it is not public, we cannot assume that it exists to confirm a tendency that China is hiding something terrible.

Why scientists are suddenly more interested in the laboratory leak theory of Covid's origin

But the likelihood that China is hiding something doesn’t help either. (Even the WHO team, whose report Chinese officials helped the author, admits they want access to more material and better information – hospital blood bank samples from the time of the outbreak and raw data in Hubei on possible cases in October and October November Although they made this clear months ago, they have yet to receive it.

So what about the other main theory: the disease originated in animals and was transmitted to humans through a natural process?

This “spillover idea” is more chaotic and also difficult to definitively prove. WHO investigators share the conclusion of most specialists in the field: the disease most likely originated from bats via another species known as an “intermediate animal” and then infected humans.

Why bats? One theory is that they have a high average body temperature because they flap their wings very quickly to fly. When we humans get a virus, we get a fever. This is the body that slightly raises our temperature to kill the invader. Viruses in bats learn to deal with a higher temperature by default. So when they pass into humans, our basic defense of raising our temperature is not working. It also means that bats are a reservoir of robust viruses that have learned to survive.

Some scientists believe it is possible that SARS-CoV-2 passed directly from bats into humans. Most experts – and the WHO report – conclude that it is an “intermediate animal,” another species that was infected before the virus was passed on to humans.

China counters Biden's Covid-origin laboratory probe ... by demanding a US laboratory probe

In this “intermediate animal” things could have got more complicated. The bat virus that comes closest to the novel coronavirus in humans is the RatG13 virus, which the WIV found. Scientists believe one way to become SARS-CoV-2 is through a “recombination event”.

This is where a virus takes something from another virus it encounters: a bit like putting better wheels on a car. It can improve the effectiveness of the virus. Figuring out where and when this happened is a task of nightmarish complexity. China regularly screened 69 animal species for rare viruses, informed the WHO in 2019 and likely earlier. Any of them – or many other species that weren’t tested – could have been the location where a recombination event formed SARS-CoV-2.

The lab leak theory has a spin-off conspiracy here. It suggests that the RatG13 virus could have been converted into SARS-CoV-2 through targeted manipulation by humans, known as “gain in function” research. Scientists do this by modifying viruses in a laboratory to find out more about how viruses infect and affect people. It can be dangerous and was briefly interrupted in the US under the Obama administration. Some scientists say that mapping virus changes to “gain in function” research is a simple explanation that is often misused to explain changes in a virus that could have occurred through natural, complex processes. These scientists reject its role in the formation of SARS-CoV-2.

Security guards stand in front of the Huanan Fish Market in Wuhan on January 11, 2020. The final step in animal theory, known as “zoonotic transfer,” is for the infected animal to come into contact with Patient Zero – the first human known to be infected. Suspicions were directed at China’s extensive, unregulated trade in exotic wildlife. Some glaring examples of the animal trade were photographed at the Huanan Seafood market, which has been regularly linked to the virus outbreak. However, the WHO report concluded that many of the known first human cases in Wuhan had no contact with Huanan at all.

In an open, permissible environment, it is extremely difficult to trace the virus back to the animal on which it was first created. It is even more difficult in China, where the Chinese government has not given the WHO team a lot of useful data.

These issues complicate the 90-day intelligence review ordered by US President Joe Biden. On one side of the argument there are a lot of circumstantial evidence and coincidences that indicate a laboratory leak. (US investigators need hard evidence of a leak and to assess whether China even knew it happened). On the other side of the argument that supports the transmission or spread of the virus in nature, there is the overwhelming preponderance of previous scientific research on this topic. But that too is annoying and inconclusive.

With all the blame, counter-allegations, suspicions and cover-ups, we humans as a species remain a problem. We really need to know how and why this virus came about so we can prevent it from happening again.

Pandemic

To Fix Healthcare After Covid-19, Doctors Must Have The Courage To Change

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Doctors showed great courage during the Covid-19 pandemic. Now you have to show the courage to change … [+] the job.

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Long before doctors battled the coronavirus, their professional ancestors risked their lives fighting the Black Death.

Throughout history, doctors have shown courage: the ability to act regardless of risk or fear.

Think sawing off a gangrenous limb or having brain surgery or treating a disease like Ebola which kills up to 90% of the people it infects. In these harrowing situations, courage alone is not enough. Doctors too, to a certain extent, have to deny objective reality. You need to suppress the existence of fear, detach yourself from its emotions, not admit weaknesses, deny any pain, show single-minded attention to the task at hand, and extinguish any feelings that are trying to escape in the process.

Until recently, no one questioned whether such extreme denial was mentally healthy. The doctors just thought it was necessary.

Courage and denial remain cultural imperatives in today’s profession. These properties are taught to every medical student and hardwired in every doctor.

And they have some unfortunate and tragic side effects.

I remember a talented doctor who returned to work the day after she received a final diagnosis herself. None of her colleagues, friends or patients knew about her illness until she died. In medical culture, this type of emotional distance is the rule, not the exception.

As a nation, we are indebted for the courage and refusal of our doctors. Without their courage and sacrifices over the past year and a half, Covid-19 would have killed many more of our friends and loved ones.

But now that our country has weathered the worst of the pandemic, it is time to address the American health care failures that harmed doctors and patients long before the coronavirus hit land. To do this, doctors need to play a leadership role both in transforming the health system and in challenging their own cultural assumptions.

These changes require more courage and less denial.

1. The courage to ask for help

In a recent article, I wrote about three critical care physicians who had recently gone through hell.

A doctor, a resident, had started his rotation in the intensive care unit with half a dozen Covid-19 patients under his care. All were dead by the end of the month. Another doctor, a die-hard ICU veteran, said she woke up in sweat every day before dawn. The third, a senior officer, watched four of his patients die in a single day.

Psychological defense mechanisms such as denial help doctors suppress fear and bypass grief over the loss of a patient. But as with any coping mechanism, denial is best used in moderation, not permanently. No level of denial, repression, harshness, or hardship could have prepared health care workers for the flood of death that Covid-19 wreaked. No amount of cultural conditioning could adequately prepare clinicians for the pain they have endured. As a result, many feel exhausted at work.

As the saying goes: “You can’t pour from an empty cup”. Too many cups are empty.

According to Medscape’s latest physician survey, 42% of all physicians are burned out. But only 7% of them say they see a therapist to improve their mental health.

It takes courage to challenge the medical profession’s culture of harshness and emotional repression. Doctors need a lot of strength to recognize their limits. And it takes courage to seek help when it is needed.

2. The courage to recognize one’s prejudices

It has become the standard in American culture to point your finger at others and blame others. Doctors are no different. On social media and at medical conferences, doctors are seldom willing to take responsibility for any of the many health care issues.

Take health differences, for example. Ask doctors why black patients have shorter lifespans and poorer health outcomes than whites, and they will blame socio-economic factors such as income, education, and the ills of American health insurance. They point to social determinants (where people were born and raised, work, play and socialize) and social dynamics (such as racial segregation, poverty and educational barriers). Of course, these external factors contribute to health inequalities, but they are not the only factors that play a role.

Research shows that two-thirds of doctors have an implicit black bias. This type of bias is different from open hatred or even conscious bias. But it is no less harmful.

At the start of the pandemic, when test kits were scarce, doctors tested white patients twice as often as black patients with identical symptoms. This makes no logical sense, as black patients were two to three times more likely to die than white patients.

Bias also helps explain why black patients receive 40% less pain medication than white patients after surgery. And it helps us understand why the average black patient receives $ 1,800 less in total medical care per year than a white person with the same health problems.

For decades, doctors have insisted that health inequalities are the fault of American society, existing policy, or other actors in the health system. While we must address these barriers to better health for all, doctors must also show the courage to hold up the mirror to the profession. After all, it is they who decide which patients will be tested and how much pain medication will be given.

Until doctors have the courage to face their prejudices, they will continue to violate the sacred oath of medicine to “do no harm first.”

3. The courage to treat patients like health partners

In the 21st century, the internet has flattened the gap between the experts and everyone else. In healthcare today, patients can explore diseases and treatments in unprecedented depth.

Many doctors believe that weeding out health information from the Internet is a recipe for “bad medicine.” May be. But doctors can’t expect patients to just stop looking for evidence on the internet. It’s not that people are suddenly asking for less information, less transparency, or less convenience from healthcare or other services.

American consumer culture is not going to go away. As a result, more and more Americans are demanding a new kind of doctor-patient relationship – one that looks far less paternalistic and more like a partnership. And this partnership must take into account the needs and wishes of the patient.

Telemedicine is a good place to start. Before the pandemic, only 8% of Americans had had a “virtual visit” to a doctor. Because most doctors had insisted that a good doctor’s practice can only take place in person. Covid-19 has proven that this perception is wrong. A recent survey found that 20% of consumers (55 million Americans) would trade their doctor for a doctor who offers telemedicine.

Historically, doctors have not valued or prioritized the patient’s time, convenience, or preferences. In the future, they won’t have a choice. A more equal doctor-patient partnership requires the courage to embrace alternative approaches to treatment and accept that patients have become (and will remain) savvy healthcare consumers.

4. The courage to uphold the true mission and purpose of medicine

For most of medical history, illnesses plagued doctors. Epidemics killed millions, including doctors who comforted the sick and dying. Entire civilizations died a gruesome death with doctors at their sick beds. And yet doctors never lost their nerve or the desire to help.

Many doctors today feel like victims of a broken system. They blame for-profit insurers, greedy pharmaceutical company executives, and hospital administrators for their professional dissatisfaction. And while they are right to call for sweeping health reforms that will free them from the administrative distractions that keep them from doing their jobs, they must also show the courage to change what they can control.

Doctors are the ones who write the prescriptions that contribute to 60,000 opioid deaths each year. They sign the surprising medical bills that have bankrupted millions of patients and their families. They contribute to the preventable medical errors that kill 200,000 people each year. They perform the 30% of all procedures that researchers at the Mayo Clinic have shown have no clinical value.

American doctors are at a crossroads. You are part of a wonderful and beautiful profession that is currently in crisis. Doctors must continue to uphold the righteous mission and purpose of medical culture. At the same time, they must have the courage to develop the most problematic parts of the culture. Not only does this benefit patients, but it also restores the appreciation the profession deserves.

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As COVID-19 cases wane, vaccine-lagging areas still see risk – The Denver Post

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JACKSON, miss. – New COVID-19 cases are declining in most of the country, even in some states with vaccine-reluctant populations. But almost all states bucking this trend have below-average vaccination rates, and experts warn that pandemic relief in regions where few people are vaccinated may be temporary.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, case numbers nationwide fell from a seven-day average of nearly 21,000 on May 29 to 14,315 on Saturday in one week. For weeks, states and cities have also been dropping virus restrictions and mask requirements indoors.

Experts said some states are seeing increased immunity because the disease has a high natural rate of spread, killing nearly 600,000 Americans to date.

“We certainly have some benefit to the population from our previous cases, but we paid for it,” said Dr. Thomas Dobbs, Mississippi State Health Commissioner. “We paid for it with deaths.”

More than 7,300 Mississippi residents have died from the pandemic, and the state has the sixth highest death rate per capita.

Dobbs estimates that about 60% of the state’s residents have “some underlying immunity”.

“We are most likely seeing this effect now because we have a combination of natural and vaccine-induced immunity,” said Dobbs.

Only eight states – Alabama, Arkansas, Hawaii, Missouri, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming – have seen a seven-day moving average for infection rates from two weeks earlier, according to Johns Hopkins University. All of them except Hawaii have fully vaccinated lower than the US average of 39.7%, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The 10 states with the fewest new cases per capita during this period all have fully vaccinated rates above the national average. These include the three most vaccinated states: Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

Medical experts said a number of factors were playing a role in the decline in case numbers across the country, including vaccines, natural immunity to exposure to the virus, warmer weather, and people spending less time indoors.

But dr. Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University, said she was concerned that the natural immunity of those exposed to the coronavirus could soon wane. And she worries that states with low vaccination rates could become hot spots.

“Just because we’re lucky in June doesn’t mean we’ll continue to be lucky through late fall and winter,” said Wen, former Baltimore city health commissioner. “We could have variants here that are more transmissible and more virulent, and those that have no immunity or have declining immunity could be vulnerable again.”

In Mississippi, about 835,000 people are fully vaccinated, or 28% of the population, compared to the national average of 43%. But despite the lagging vaccination rate, the state’s moving average of new daily infections has declined by about 18% in the past two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins.

Dr. Albert Ko, chairman of the Department of Microbial Disease Epidemiology at Yale, said there was no accurate data to show the percentage of the population in “high exposure” states like Alabama and Texas, but he said estimates assume up to 50%.

“I think it doesn’t deny the importance of vaccination, especially because the antibody levels produced by natural infections are lower than what we have for our best vaccine,” Ko said.

Ko said it is important that those who have been exposed to the disease also get vaccinated because natural immunity doesn’t last as long as vaccine immunity and antibody levels are lower.

Wen said research strongly suggests that vaccinations are beneficial for those who already have antibodies from infection.

“I think it’s a fallacy that many people don’t need to be vaccinated after they recover,” she said.

___

Pat Eaton-Robb contributed to this report from Connecticut.

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Marin mandates COVID-19 sick leave at small businesses

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Companies with 25 or fewer employees in unincorporated Marin County are now required to provide paid sick leave to employees who are absent from work due to the pandemic.

The supervisory board unanimously accepted the mandate at its meeting on Tuesday.

“This law is designed to help our efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19,” Marin County Councilor Matthew Hymel told managers. “It complements some of our previous efforts to provide rental support and emergency assistance for COVID-positive, low-income residents.”

The ordinance expires on September 30, after which there will be no federal tax credit to reimburse companies for the cost of providing sick leave.

“This regulation is therefore a paid-for tool to help keep small business employees safe,” said Supervisor Damon Connolly.

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which went into effect on March 18, 2020, guaranteed certain employees who were unable to work due to the health crisis to receive paid sick leave. When that law expired in late December, President Joe Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act, which extended the tax credit but did not mandate employers to grant paid sick leave.

On March 19, Governor Gavin Newsom signed Senate Law 95, which requires all employers with more than 25 workers to give their workers paid sick leave related to COVID-19 by September 30.

“This regulation establishes parity by ensuring that small business employees can take the necessary precautions to prevent the spread of COVID,” Connolly said.

Supervisor Dennis Rodoni said: “This is simply a hole in the safety net that we are closing with this action.”

According to the new regulation, a full-time employee who works 40 or more hours per week is granted up to 80 hours of additional paid sick leave. Part-time workers who work less than 40 hours per week are entitled to sick leave no more than their average number of hours over a two-week period, calculated over the last six months.

Employees do not have to have COVID-19 to be eligible for the benefit. You are also entitled if you are in quarantine due to COVID-19; Caring for a person who is sick or in quarantine due to COVID-19; have to look after a senior citizen or child whose normal carer or school is closed due to COVID-19; or make an appointment for a COVID-19 vaccination.

“This problem really affects mostly low-wage workers, mostly black women,” said Maddy Hirshfield, North Bay Labor Council policy director. “The system we have forces people to go to work sick, which is a public health issue at the best of times. It’s a public nightmare during a pandemic. “

Pedro Conceição, an organizer of SEIU-United Healthcare Workers, said, “Most low-wage California workers have no more than three days of paid sick leave as required by the state, and only 25% of private sector workers receive at least 10 days of paid sick leave annually. We firmly believe that no employee should be forced to choose between working sick and unpaid sick days. “

Rollie Katz, executive director of the Marin Association of Public Employees, said, “Hopefully we’ll get Marin cities to do this too.”

Officials in San Rafael and Novato said there are no plans to consider a similar measure.

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