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Is More Affordable Housing On The Horizon? – Real Estate Market Update

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If you follow the real estate market closely, you may find that the market is ripe for a price correction. You can see the evidence in the data, which we’ll get into later. But for a general overview, let’s jump to The Big Story.

The big story

To understand why home prices might level off or drop slightly in the near future, just look at the most recent data on new and existing home sales. Let’s start with where the prices are currently.

The median price of an existing home was $ 350,300 in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. It’s a new record high and is 23.6% above prices in May 2020. For new home sales, the average sales price rose 18.1% year over year to $ 374,400.

These numbers are not completely out of whack with other indices either. The Case-Shiller house price index is now up 14.9% year over year. Meanwhile, a separate index on home sales, backed by conventional Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) loans, shows prices are up 15.7% since April last year.

So why do I think this is moderate? Simple economy. Sales are falling. Existing property sales fell 0.9% last month. On the new home page, sales are down 5.9%. It is true that part of this is a supply issue. With a lack of available options, people may be waiting to find the right home.

But that is slowly becoming less important in the new home market, where the supply is 4.8 months compared to the current sales level. This exceeds the offer for existing houses with 2.5 months. Housing starts for new buildings have increased by 50.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Second, while mortgage rates are still quite attractive, they have risen a little. The greater the upward pressure on interest rates, the more downward pressure you will see on people’s home buying budgets. Prices can’t go up forever.

More news you can use

As always, Econoday1’s analysis is used to produce this part of the report.

Consumer price index (CPI)

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in May and 5% since May last year. Most interesting to this audience, however, will be the fact that the index for housing is up 0.3%, with an increase of 0.2% for both rent and the equivalent rent of owners how much it is a homeowner would cost to rent a comparable room.

Retail sales

Retail sales fell 1.3% in May, mainly due to the lack of incentives that month and lower unemployment insurances for the pandemic fight. Of particular interest, however, is that building materials sales fell by 5.9% in May. This may indicate a slowdown in home remodeling or construction.

Housing market index

In June, home builders’ confidence in the housing market only cooled slightly, dropping 2 points to 81. Each of the components also fell 2 points, with current sales being 86 and sales over the next 6 months being 79 and the traffic with potential leveled off buyers go through houses at 71. Overall, the report still points to a hot market.

New residential construction

We move from an immediate supply impact to the furthest outside and start finishing. These fell by 4.1% to 1.368 million. Still, it’s 16.1% higher than a year ago. Completions of single-family homes decreased by 2.6% to 1.004 million, while completions in units of buildings of five or more were 387,000.

The number of start-ups rose by 3.6% to 1.572 million compared to the previous month, 15.3% above the previous year’s figure. On the single-family side, the starts were 1.098 million with 465,000 multi-family starts.

After all, building permits fell by 3% to 1.681 million in May, which is 34.9% higher than in the previous year. Single-family home approvals were 1.13 million, down 1.6% in May. Eventually 494,000 multi-family permits were approved.

Existing home sales

Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.8 million, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous month but an increase of 44.6% from the previous year. To be fair, there wasn’t much home buying last May.

As already mentioned, the supply is extremely scarce at 2.5 months in relation to current business and sales. Meanwhile, sales prices remain high. You will want to be patient with your customers.

Sale of new houses

New home sales declined 5.9% in May to an annualized rate of 769,000. As mentioned, prices are pretty high at this point at $ 374,400 – and that’s the median. That is 18.1% more than in the previous year. The good news is that the supply is up 14,000 to 330,000 and overall is in much better shape compared to the current pace than the 4.8 month old home sales.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

The gross domestic product (GDP) rose in the final result of the first quarter by 6.4%. An 11.4% increase in consumer spending contributed to economic growth.

An interesting statistic in the housing industry is that housing investment as measured by real GDP rose by 12.9% compared to the previous year.

Case-Shiller House Price Index

Seasonally adjusted, home prices in this 20-city index rose by 1.6%, which corresponds to a 3-month average. Prices rose by a total of 2.1% and since last April by 14.9%.

FHFA house price index

Prices for this index rose 1.8% overall in April. Unlike Case-Shiller, these rates are based on any type of average and only conventional loans are considered. The increase since last April is 15.7%.

Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence for June rose 7.3 points and settled at a new pandemic high of 127.3. For those of us who deal with real estate, you’ll also be delighted to know that the plans to buy a home have emerged.

Home Sales Index

Pending home sales increased 8% to 114.7. This is a great sign of the existing June and July home sales figures as it represents the number of homes for sale, most of which will be closed in the future.

Mortgage rates

Although they have been up a bit lately, mortgage rates are still very good and were still below 3% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage last week, according to Freddie Mac. However, they cannot stay low forever. When your customers are ready, encourage them to take advantage.

With 0.6 points in fees paid and a 20% decrease, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.98%, 4 basis points less than the week, up from 3.07% a year ago.

The average interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage paid 0.7 point and the same down payment was 2.26%, after falling 8 basis points in the week and down from 2.56% last year.

Finally, the average interest rate on a 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.3 points paid and a down payment of 20% increased one basis point to 2.54%. It’s less than 3% last year.

Now that you have the necessary knowledge, go ahead and inspire your customers. Would you like more security that results from the transparency of your customers’ credit process? Sign up for Rocket ProSM Insight today!

1 Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained on this calendar. However, every aspect of this information is subject to change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice and does not guarantee or warrant that the information is correct or complete at all times. Copyright 2021 Econoday, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Sydney real estate: Man owns six properties at 32

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A Sydney father, aged 32, can boast a portfolio of six properties valued at $ 2.7 million. That’s how he did it.

At the age of 32, Bobby Haeri owns six properties in two different states with net worth of $ 2.7 million.

The Sydney father bought his first property at the age of 18 after sharing the cost with his sister and father.

Since then, he has pushed his way through loans, rent, mortgage insurance, and his salary to buy another five properties.

“The reality is that you have to make sacrifices, maybe not go on vacation for a few years, budget, or work 12 hours a day,” he told news.com.au.

“Working just eight hours, five days a week, will be difficult to achieve in the early stages.”

Mr Haeri says he now works 12 hours a day, six days a week and runs his own real estate agency while he and his wife Dionne raise their daughter Mia, 1.

Although he admits he currently has $ 1.89 million in debt, he has healthy cash flow.

His tenants bring in around $ 10,000 a month and he only has to pay off $ 7,000 a month on his mortgage, which leaves him in his pocket.

Immediately after graduating from high school, Mr. Haeri went full-time, started his own gardening business and bought his first property in 2008.

It was a $ 550,000, two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment in St. Ives, north Sydney.

“At that point in time there were government grants and incentives, it was about a five percent contribution. You didn’t have to pay stamp duty, you paid stamp duty and then you get it back, ”he recalls.

They spent $ 27,500 to secure the apartment.

When he was 21, he used his share of the equity on his first property to buy his second.

This time it was a two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment in Killara, a neighboring suburb of St. Ives, for $ 570,000.

“When I worked in the gardening business, I listened to podcasts and read books 11 hours a day. I felt like I knew a lot about real estate, ”he said.

Both properties had tenants covering his mortgage fees.

A year later, Mr. Haeri decided to sell the apartment in Killara as he had just become engaged to his current wife, Dionne.

Since it was in Sydney during the housing boom, the apartment cost $ 100,000 more than he paid for it.

Two years later, at the age of 25, he used part of this money to finance his wedding and honeymoon. The rest went to a new home for him and his wife, which, like the previous apartment, cost $ 570,000.

It was a one-room apartment in Brookvale, Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

The $ 2,200 a month mortgage payments were “convenient” as his gardening business was doing well and Dionne was earning a post-graduate engineering salary. Together they made just over $ 100,000.

Because of this, Mr Haeri said, “You definitely want to try (building a real estate portfolio) with someone” as a piece of advice.

With two qualities in his name, Mr. Haeri decided it was time to try something different.

In 2017, he heard that Grafton, a town in the Northern Rivers region of NSW, was going to have many government infrastructure and construction projects going on.

“This is how the area gentrifies when you see these regional cities experiencing strong growth,” he said, adding that he wanted to diversify his portfolio.

The couple bought an established home in Grafton for $ 290,000.

“The thought process was that we knew we wanted to build a real estate portfolio, but the cash flow income in Sydney wasn’t there,” Haeri said.

“You can’t own more than two properties in Sydney because it’s too difficult financially.”

He believes 90 percent of investors are “stuck” with the two-property brand.

Then they grabbed a 700-square-foot block of vacant land valued at $ 65,000, also in Grafton.

They divided the empty lot in two and built two completely identical houses with three bedrooms and two bathrooms.

Each house cost $ 260,000, but they only needed a 10 percent down payment to build.

At that time, in 2017, Mr. Haeri owned five properties.

A year later, Mr. Haeri and his sister sold their very first property.

“I wanted to keep building my portfolio and my sister didn’t,” he said.

“It was easier to go away with my money, she’s gone with her money.”

They had held the St. Ives apartment for 10 years. It sold for $ 790,000, up from $ 550,000 when they originally bought it, bringing him an additional $ 100,000 straight into his pocket.

In the same year, in 2018, Mr. Haeri stepped down from his gardening business and delegated the tasks to others, but still reaped the rewards, which gave him the time to set up the real estate investment agency.

They also moved out of their Brookvale home and opened it up to tenants. So they could live cheaper elsewhere and the rent covered their mortgages.

The couple had worked hard to repay their mortgages “fairly aggressively” and felt ready to buy again in early 2020.

In March of last year the Haeris looked even further into the distance – this time to Queensland.

They got a $ 300,000 house in the southern Brisbane suburb of Kingston, a 30-minute drive from the CBD.

In July of the same year, their daughter Mia was born.

Just three months later, in October, they did bought a $ 302,000 lot in Deception Bay on the northern outskirts of Brisbane.

This was his sixth simultaneous quality.

They are in the process of building granny flats behind the two houses in Brisbane and one of the Grafton houses.

The couple make a quarter of a million dollars together.

Mr. Haeri’s wife, now an Associate Engineer, makes $ 130,000 while making $ 120,000 a year.

Mr Haeri said his impressive portfolio of six properties would not have been possible with the lender’s mortgage insurance or LMI.

He used LMI to secure the Brookvale property and both Brisbane.

LMI, in his opinion, isn’t as scary as it sounds.

“People shouldn’t be too obsessed with it,” he said.

“If you have $ 100,000, you could buy a home for $ 400,000 and you’re not buying an LMI. Or you can buy two properties with increasing value.

“These properties, which are increasing in value, will far outweigh the LMI costs.

“Then you can pile up your real estate twice as fast.

“Don’t focus too much on saving a 20 percent deposit.”

LMI is required when you have a down payment of less than 20 percent of the property’s value.

It is a one-time, non-refundable, non-transferable premium that aims to protect the lender from financial loss if the borrower cannot afford to pay back their home loan.

It can either be prepaid or added to your home loan.

Mr. Haeri said some of his loans were principal and interest while others were just interest.

However, for the next year he plans to transfer everything to interest only.

“We take some time off to spend with Mia, that way we have the passive income,” he said.

Read related topics:Sydney

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Hard Money Loans – When a Real Estate Investment Needs Fast Financing » RealtyBizNews: Real Estate News

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There are many ways to successfully invest in real estate. Hard money lending isn’t that much noticed these days, but it still has a valuable place in the investment world. Coin lenders generally do not value real estate in the same way that most investors and other real estate professionals do. Hard cash loans can be easier to come by, but they can be expensive. Despite the cost, they are an indispensable tool for investors. Knowing when to use hard money and how to get it is crucial.

As an investor, you should know your local market inside out. After a quick tour, you should instinctively have a good idea of ​​property value. What is different for coin lenders is that they often lend money outside of their local market. It can be in a distant city or across the country. Coin lenders cannot physically view the property themselves, nor do they have a solid understanding of local property values.

Every private contract is written for the mutual benefit of both the investor and the lender, but there are general rules that drive the hard money market. Hard money lenders do not use the standard underwriting process that banks use. Banks focus on the borrower’s credit history and income. A bank loan is usually 90% or more of the home value.

Coin lenders focus on the value of the property rather than the borrower’s creditworthiness. While they will look for a professional assessment, it is not the only assessment tool they rely on. Often times, they want at least two and possibly three assessment models to help them make an informed decision. Coin lenders will look through tax bills, but again this is not a reliable method of valuing property. Tax assessment districts calculate values ​​annually at best and many only every two years. In addition, the tax office only evaluates real estate from the curb. You do not have access to the inside of the house.

Broker’s Price Opinion (BPO) is another tool that moneylenders use to value real estate. A BPO is an estate agent’s appraisal of the property’s value. However, hard money providers are also skeptical of these valuations, as brokers tend to overvaluate real estate in the hope of a higher listing commission and an optimistic view of the local real estate market.

The value a hard money lender attaches to a property has nothing to do with the purchase price you negotiated. It is based on the market value of the property.

In the end, tough money lenders take all of the information available to make an informed decision. You ask yourself questions like: “When the market has bottomed out, can I get the money I borrowed for the property back? Will I still benefit from this feature if I have to take control in the event of a payment default? “

To fully protect themselves, hard money lenders typically only loan out 50 to 70% of the property’s value. As an investor, you must either negotiate a purchase price of this magnitude or have additional financing available. Also, remember that a tough moneylender knows the fix-and-flip business as much as any investor does. You want to know your exact plan for the property and need to approve it along with the value of the property.

Most hard money lenders provide short-term loans with an average duration of six months to two years. In general, the greatest benefit that hard money brings is getting it closed quickly. Since there is no credit check, the closing can take place a few days after an application has been approved. Once you’ve established a relationship with a hard money lender, loans can be funded in a matter of hours. A hard money investor needs to know what documents are required to approve the application.

If your ducks aren’t all in a row, funding can take a few weeks, but just three to five days are possible. If you have a trusting relationship with a hard money lender, you may have cash within 24 to 72 hours.

Hard money is not for everyone (or even most people). The only reason to get such a loan is for a large investment that requires a quick response. It can cost you 10% of the loan amount for interest and loan fees. But if you can make 30% on a deal in weeks or months, it’s probably worth paying more for quick funding. When a good investment doesn’t keep you waiting, a hard cash loan may still be the best answer.

What else do you think investors should know about hard money loans? Please share your findings and experiences by leaving a comment.

Additionally, our weekly Ask Brian column welcomes questions from readers of all levels of real estate experience. Please email your questions, inquiries or article ideas to askbrian@realtybiznews.com.

Photo by Frederick Warren on Unsplash

Author Biography: Brian Kline has been investing in real estate for more than 35 years and has been writing about real estate investing for 12 years. He also has over 30 years of business experience including 12 years as a manager at Boeing Aircraft Company. Brian currently lives in Lake Cushman, Washington. A vacation destination near a national and Pacific ocean.

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Teetering property developer Evergrande sparks contagion fears for China’s economy

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Real estate developer China Evergrande Group is on the verge of collapse, burdened by a huge burden of debt and billions of dollars in real estate that it cannot sell as quickly and profitably as expected.

While trouble has been brewing for a year, it is now coming to a head as the company missed a loan payment in June and more are expected. Evergrande offices have been the scene of angry protests this week, and things could get even uglier on Monday if the company is likely to miss another key interest payment to its increasingly concerned financiers.

Evergrande’s potential collapse raises fears that it could drag other parts of China’s housing market with it – and affect business interests outside of China as well.

Here’s a quick explanation of what you need to know about history.

What is Evergrande?

Evergrande was founded in 1996 in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, across the border from Hong Kong, and is primarily a real estate developer whose core business is buying land and converting it into residential property. Company founder Hui Ka Yan is a former steel worker who was responsible for the real estate boom in China in the 21st

The company has built more than 1,300 housing developments in 280 cities in China and is planning an additional 3,000 projects in various cities across the country.

But like any good conglomerate, it has spread to all sorts of other businesses, including bottled water and groceries, electric vehicles, theme parks, a Netflix-like streaming service with nearly 40 million customers – and even a professional soccer team.

Why is it in trouble?

Debt – and a lot of it. The company has nearly two trillion yuan in debt on its books, which is more than $ 300 billion. The company has aggressively borrowed money to buy more land for development and quickly sold low-margin homes to raise enough cash to start the cycle again – which works well as a business model until it stops working .

In late 2020, new rules that took a closer look at the company’s finances showed a higher-than-expected debt burden. This, coupled with increasing construction delays, frightened buyers and started a vicious circle. The company began its descent to pariah status as lenders and buyers lost their nerve in lockstep.

Every attempt by Evergrande since then to distract from his problems has only served to draw more attention to them. The lenders became more and more insecure. Existing owners were upset. New sales slowed, creating a feedback loop that made lenders even more nervous.

CLOCK | Investors furiously protest outside Evergrande offices:

Chinese real estate jitter

Buyers of Chinese property developer Evergrande are demanding responses from management as fears grow that the company may collapse under its debt burden. (David Kirton / Reuters) 0:34

In June, the company admitted it had failed to pay a loan. The next month, a Chinese court froze a $ 20 million bank deposit at the request of one of its lenders. At least one believer, a paint supplier, is reportedly getting paid in apartments that won’t be ready until 2024.

According to Bloomberg, advance sales on two projects in Hunan were suspended on July 19. Three days later, Hong Kong banks stopped offering mortgages for the company’s incomplete projects in the city. On August 9, two more projects in Kunming halted construction due to defaulted payments, followed by similar halts on projects in Nanjing and Chengdu. There has been snowballing since then. The company’s stock price plummeted 90 percent last year, and most of its bonds are in junk status.

The company is behind on its commitments to more than 70,000 investors. There are more than a million buyers of unfinished projects in the balance. And the pace of problems is increasing. “Sales could continue to plummet as the property developer may struggle to restore the confidence of potential homebuyers,” said Lisa Zhou, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Monday numbers are a turning point for the company as Evergrande is set to make a $ 80 million interest payment on one of its many loans, and there is next to no chance it will pay them – which could make the watch ticking towards some undesirable results.

What could happen?

There are a number of somber B-words on the table – bankruptcy, separation, buyout, or bailout – and none of them are ideal.

The first option would be the most painful.

“If Evergrande defaults on its debt as expected and goes through a restructuring process, I don’t see why this should be curbed,” Michel Lowy of distressed investment firm SC Lowy told Reuters.

The delayed Emerald Bay residential project in Hong Kong has scared buyers. (Lam Yik / Bloomberg)

But given the Chinese government’s longstanding pursuit of stability, this is also the most unlikely outcome. The company owes money to 128 different banks and has behind nearly every 20th property sale in China in the past five years. Evergrande has nearly 200,000 permanent employees, but hires nearly four million people annually to work on various projects.

With such a broad reach, analysts covering the sector are confident Beijing won’t just let the company collapse. “Evergrande’s escalating crisis could prompt government action to prevent social instability,” Zhou said.

More likely, a version of the next two options, a split or a buyout, where the company sells assets to raise cash and enlist help to manage things, is more likely. “State-owned companies or other developers can also take on Evergrande’s projects after Chinese officials send accounting and legal experts to review the company’s finances,” Zhou said.

However, a full government bailout is also unlikely. China has cracked down on its soaring tech sector, trying to regulate and ban cryptocurrencies and curb excesses in all possible sectors. Evergrande’s problems could be a test case of Beijing’s desire and ability to manage every facet of the growing economy.

A man walks past a banner promoting the Emerald Bay housing project in Hong Kong amid news that the developer is on the verge of collapse. (Lam Yik / Bloomberg)

Bank of Montreal economist Art Woo said in a statement Friday that he also doubts a bailout will come. “Who could bear the losses is honestly difficult to predict, but we think it is reasonable to assume that the authorities are unlikely to bail out shareholders or creditors to keep moral hazard from increasing and improve financial discipline,” he said .

Organized processing is more likely in order to keep the damage as low as possible. “We don’t think the government has any incentive to save Evergrande (which is a private company),” Nomura analyst Iris Chen said in a customer note.

“But they will not actively push Evergrande down and from our point of view monitor a more orderly default, if at all.”

CLOCK | CBC reported on China’s “ghost towns” of empty towers nearly a decade ago: CBC’s Adrienne Arsenault explains how empty skyscrapers are casting shadows on Canada’s economy. 2:31

Are there any effects outside of China?

Not much, right, although Evergrande has assets in Europe and North America – including the posh Château Montebello resort in Quebec – but the company’s troubles are nonetheless a warning to people everywhere.

China has been in a real estate boom for more than two decades as more and more people are investing money in residential real estate – almost regardless of the price or demand for the underlying asset.

The video went viral on social media this month when a 15-tower condominium in Kunming was blown up for being a ghost town with no real residents, eight years after it was built.

While it wasn’t an Evergrande project, the concern is that there are plenty of others out there who like it.

Again the breathtaking demolition videos showing the oversupply of housing in China: 15 skyscrapers in China, which were part of Liyang Star City’s Phase II project, have just been demolished after standing unfinished for eight years because there was no demand from the market . pic.twitter.com/UByqjk8QXX

– @ Jon_Hartley_

China’s Lehman Brothers Moment?

The 2009 financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of two investment banks, Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers

That may be far-fetched for the economy as a whole this time around, but it is certainly on the table for the Chinese housing market at least.

“Lehman [was] Quite different from the way it slipped through the financial system and frozen activity, “said Patrick Perret-Green, an independent London analyst.

“Millions of multi-party contracts, each trying to determine their risk,” he said. “With Evergrande, it’s depressing the entire real estate industry.”

“There are other developers who have the same lack of access to liquidity problem and have expanded too much,” Lowy said.

Simon MacAdam, an economist at Capital Economics, believes the Lehman parables are unjustified.

“The story of the Lehman moment in China is far from it,” he said. “Even if it were the first of many property developers to go bankrupt in China, we suspect it would be a political misstep for it to result in a severe slowdown in its economy.”

Regardless, the Evergrande saga is a cautionary tale about the downside of unrestrained property speculation everywhere.

As Woo put it, “Default or bankruptcy doesn’t pose a Lehman-like threat … but it’s still bad news for the economy.”

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