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NABOR® Economic Summit experts discuss migration and regulatory patterns

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NAPLES, FL – More than 300 REALTORS®, real estate professionals and local executives interested in Collier County’s economic health and its impact on the local real estate market attended in person or virtually on the Naples Area Board of REALTORS®. part (NABOR®) ninth annual economic summit, “A View from the Top”, on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021, at the Hilton Naples. Three top economists gave a qualitative insight into the factors influencing the economy and shared their analysis of the factors influencing growth and property sales in the near future.

The data-rich hybrid event began with a welcome message from NABOR® President Corey McCloskey, followed by remarks from event sponsor BJ Cottrell, who is the managing partner of the FIRPTA Group. Longtime summit moderator Jeff Lytle set the tone of the day by assuring attendees that they would get answers to questions about the impact the pandemic is having on the economy and whether it will continue to affect the housing market.

First, Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors® chief economist and director of industrial data and analysis, takes the stage. After Dr. O’Connor had given a comparative overview of Florida and the local housing industry, Dr. O’Connor said data showed that the Florida luxury real estate market has improved more than any other price segment over the past year. He then referred to data from the United States Postal Service (USPS) which showed that New York had the highest number of residents who moved their permanent address to Florida in 2020. The USPS data also showed that new residents came mainly from urban cities and boroughs like Manhattan, Chicago, and Boston.

The presentation by Dr. O’Connor included a historical perspective of the price data. “Prices in Florida haven’t gone down in 10 years. But while the median closing price for single-family houses has apparently stabilized in recent months, the prices for condominiums have continued to rise. “

Dr. O’Connor added, “If all of the Florida homes were on the market right now, we would have an eight month inventory.” He quickly assured the audience that the current situation of house bank defaults does not have the same qualities as it did 10 years ago due to the stricter lending rules.

Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, announced in a virtual presentation that the “work from home” trend will outlast the pandemic and predicted that it will continue to have a major impact on where people buy a home for years to come.

With a housing shortage in America, Dr. Yun points out that rents rose 8 percent over the past year. He also predicts that rents will continue to rise as house prices are also likely to continue to rise due to our inability to meet demand. In fact, he said, “A year ago home prices were 20 percent lower, so some buyers are being priced today.” Dr. Yun also revealed that for these prospective buyers, rental payment history is used as a factor in qualifying for a mortgage.

Dr. Yun predicts that property prices will continue to rise 5 to 10 percent in Florida and potentially up to 20 percent in the Naples area.

Most recently at the summit was Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, a political economist and celebrated public speaker who was a former senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders. Dr. Eisenberg, whose style of presentation brings humor into an often banal topic, made it unmistakably clear that “the above trend growth will continue until next year”. It showed several graphs that identified consumer behavior activity during the pandemic, including the increase in retail sales when all were in quarantine and how the service sector is expected to overtake retail consumption as the preferred way to spend money now as the Consumers are less reluctant to go to their homes.

Dr. Eisenberg said, “Under normal conditions, when you exit a recession, supply and demand will collapse. But not now. ”That’s because demand has skyrocketed as people are hungry to return to pre-pandemic consumer behavior, but the influential impact of the pandemic has resulted in all production being halted – both for the retail as well as for the service sector – and production cannot keep up.

Dr. Eisenberg said the stock market has averaged 10 percent annual return for the past 10 years, but predicts the average return could decrease to about 5 percent annually over the next 10 years. Importantly for REALTORS®, he said: “Household balances are spectacular. We want to spend and consume and do, it’s just that we can’t get people to do something [goods] and service [our needs]. However, if the [pandemic] the recession began, we were forced to stay home, and forced savings were created. As a result, these forced savings saved many people $ 25,000, which is why we saw an increase in first-time home buyers in 2021. “

In conclusion, Dr. Eisenberg, he doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates before the end of 2022 – the Fed may be forced to hike rates before it wants to. “

The Economic Summit is a joint effort by the NABOR® Board of Directors, the Media Relations Committee and the Economic Summit Task Force, led by Rick Fioretti, Chair of the Economic Summit Committee.

NABOR® thanks its event sponsor The FIRPTA Group, technology sponsor Supra, program sponsor Stuart Kaye Homes, media sponsor SWFL Home Inspections, reception sponsor DR Horton and table sponsors: Gulfshore Insurance, Law Offices of Sam Saad III, Honc Industries, Old Republic Exchange, The National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP), Women’s Council of REALTORS®, and Keep Collier Beautiful.

NABOR® is located at 1455 Pine Ridge Road in Naples. For more information on the Economic Summit, please contact Marcia Albert at (239) 597-1666.

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Real estate commission structures do need changing

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Earlier this month the editors of the Boston Herald called on the National Association of Realtors to amend a number of rules that they believe are anti-competitive and are designed to keep real estate commissions artificially high.

In response to the editorial, NAR President Charlie Oppler pointed out that commission rates have steadily declined in recent years. The consequence of this decline, according to Oppler, is that the commissions are fully negotiable, which suggests that agent compensation is not anti-competitive. However, a closer look at the commission data actually supports the opposite conclusion; namely, that there is substantial evidence that the current commission structure is against antitrust law.

When analyzing real estate commissions, it is important to recognize that the total real estate commission consists of two components: the broker’s commission and the buyer’s commission.

Because listing agents negotiate their commissions directly with sellers, there are no anti-competitive concerns with this component of total commission. However, this is not the case with the brokerage commission because the brokerage commissions do not negotiate their commissions directly with their buyers like they would in any other industry. Instead, the NAR rules stipulate that when listing the home, the seller must offer a preset, non-negotiable commission to the buyer’s agent who mediates the buyer.

This means that the buyer’s brokerage commission is not dictated by free market forces when the price of a service equals the value of the service. Instead, it is determined by how high the buyer’s commission is in the respective market. This notion of a common price exists because most sellers either from experience or from their brokerage agents know that offering a lower brokerage commission to the buyer would encourage brokers to illegally distract their customers from their offers and towards properties with higher commissions .

The declining commission data referenced by Oppler emphatically supports this characterization of real estate commissions. According to industry news site RealTrends, the average national commission rate has fallen from 5.40% in 2012 to 4.90% to 4.94% in 2020. (For simplicity we assume it is 4.90%.)

However, as explained above, we have to split the total commission into the broker’s commission and the buyer’s commission. According to a Redfin study, the average brokerage commission fell only slightly from 2.8% in 2012 to 2.7% in 2020. It can be deduced from this that the average brokerage commission fell from 2.6% to 2.2% during this period – four times the decrease in the buyer’s average brokerage commission.

It should come as no surprise that the average brokerage commission has dropped significantly over this period. First, the number of active brokers increased by 46% from nearly one million to nearly 1.5 million between 2012 and 2020. It is to be expected that this increasing competition will put pressure on commissions. Second, the average home sale price rose 23% (adjusted for inflation) over this eight year period, more than offsetting the decline in average listing commission. Finally, the increasing adoption of technological tools such as electronic signature software has helped streamline the process.

Therefore, the sharp drop in the average brokerage commission is an indication that free market forces are at play on the listing side. If this were the case on the buy side, we would expect a similar decline in the buyer’s average brokerage commission as the trends described above affect both sides of the deal. On the buy side, the decline is even more dramatic as buyers increasingly find their new homes on real estate websites like Zillow and realtor.com.

The fact that the buyer’s average brokerage fee has changed little since 2012 therefore supports the argument that the buyer’s brokerage fee is dictated by an arbitrary rate rather than free market forces.

Will Fried is a data scientist at REX.

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Fall Real Estate: Tri-Valley market shifting as 2021 comes to an end | News

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Tired homebuyers looking for a break can look forward to something in Pleasanton in 2022.

Buyer behavior changed in the second half of 2021 and is likely to continue into next year, said Tina Hand, 2021 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors.

“In general, homebuyers find less competition when they bid on real estate,” said Hand. “Many buyers are still a bit tired; they have been on the market for a long time and have been much outbid.”

She explained that historically high sales prices have taken their toll and there are simply fewer buyers in the market. Hand said buyers “are still waiting for prices to fall further despite we’ve seen price adjustments.”

The number of pending sales in Pleasanton peaked at 87 in April and then stabilized in May, June and July. Pending sales fell to 57 in August and then to 54 in September. This trend suggests a decline in buyer enthusiasm, which is also reflected in sales prices.

From August through September, the average retail price for a single family home in Pleasanton fell from $ 1.79 million to $ 1.56 million. This change was just one of the few times in 2021 that sales prices dropped month on month.

Hand said buyers are pulling out and sellers are not used to that. When asked how the sellers are reacting, Hand said: “I think they are a bit surprised that in August and early September they are not getting the prices we saw the market is shifting.”

“Sellers had received 15 or 20 multiple bids that were $ 200,000 to $ 400,000 above the asking price, and that doesn’t happen,” she said.

According to Hand, changes in the total cost of living are dampening buyer enthusiasm.

“People are starting to see fuel prices go up, food prices go up. I think that’s another factor in why people might be backing off a bit,” she added. “We have inflation going on and I think that scares people. First-time buyers in particular are a little nervous and will wait and see what happens.

The monthly price changes from August to September are surprising, but do not yet indicate a major shift in home sales prices. The average sale price for a home in Pleasanton in 2020 was just over $ 1.25 million. From January to August 2021, the average retail price was more than $ 1.6 million.

Hand said: “There is talk of a ‘housing bubble’ but the factors are just not there; this is not 2008. What happened then will not happen in 2021.”

Looking ahead, Hand said buyers should be positive with potentially more options. “More inventory in the market will help home buyers moving up or down or first-time home buyers – whatever the case.”

When asked when the 2022 real estate season will start, Hand predicted, “I bet it will start in late December or mid-January. that will make a difference in both residential and commercial real estate. “

Editor’s Note: David Stark is the public affairs and communications director for the Bay East Association of Realtors, based in Pleasanton.

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Shaq Sells Florida Mansion For 60% Less Than He Originally Sought

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After three years, five agents, and several price cuts, the NBA legend is Shaquille O’Neal has finally made a sale of its longstanding Florida property.

A deal for the huge estate known as Shaq-apulco was sealed for $ 11 million. That was 33% less than the last April list price of $ 16.5 million.

In 2018, Shaqs Spread hit the market in Windermere, FL for a whopping $ 28 million. Months later, the price was lowered to $ 22 million.

The waterfront retreat returned to the market in 2020 with a new marketing strategy and a new price of $ 19.5 million before being dropped again earlier this year.

Ultimately, the property was sold for 60 percent of the original, soaring asking price.

O’Neal realtor Benjamin Hillman of Premier Sotheby’s International Realty explained what made buyers decide and said through a representative, “It was the amenities and expansive lakeside setting that did it.”

He did not want to comment on the selling price.

The huge mansion, which the athlete bought for $ 3.95 million in 1993, has been modified down to the smallest detail. That turned out to be a certain hurdle for buyers.

New listing agent, new strategy

Hillman, the fifth agent to oversee the listing, spoke to us back in April about his revamped sales strategy. His goal: a lot less Shaq.

“I watched this house for over three years and they all walked down the same street, from Shaq, Shaq, Shaq,” Hillman told us about the strategy of previous agents. “But I want to take him out of the picture. I asked that any Shaq items that could be moved be moved. “

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This was a challenge given the “S” branding throughout the 31,000-square-foot interior, sports field, and oversized, custom-made furniture tailored to fit the 7-foot-1-inch star.

However, Hillman really managed to clear out a lot of Shaq’s belongings. In addition, the interior walls were painted white and many rooms were newly staged.

As the photos illustrate, references to Shaq remain: the diesel truck mural, the cinema decorated with Superman, and a similarly branded motor show. The “S” is even engraved in a glass shower door. The indoor basketball court still has Shaq’s name on the hardwood.

Trophy home

Unsurprisingly, Shaqs Spread has everything a superstar could need. The spacious interior offers breathtaking perks anchored by a 1,170 square foot two story great room with a marble fireplace and glass walls.

For entertainment, the manor house offers a cigar room, an aquarium room, a home theater, a games room, a dance studio, an office and a wine bar.

The master suite includes a 900 square meter sleeping area, two bathrooms and four closets.

Luxurious landscape

Despite its highly adapted furnishings, the property offers elements that every luxury buyer will appreciate. The 4 acre area overlooks Lake Butler and offers 700 feet of lakefront.

In addition, the royal residence is in the gated golf club community of Isleworth.

The resort-like facility is certainly a selling point. There is a 25m long and 4.5m deep pool with a custom rock waterfall. A summer kitchen, tiki-style cabana, and hot tub are also part of the package.

A covered boat dock with seating area is equipped with an electric boat lift.

O’Neal, 49, has long since left this huge mansion.

After a 19-year career, he retired from the NBA in 2011. He spends more time in Atlanta, where he works as an analyst for Inside the NBA on TNT.

Benjamin Hillman with Premier Sotheby’s International Realty represented O’Neal. Rob Rahter, a broker partner and specialist in luxury real estate for the Stockworth Realty Group, represented the buyer.

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