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No holiday discounts in Bay Area real estate

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Bay Area homebuyers didn’t find any Black Friday specials this holiday season as prices shot up 17% in November, another rapid spike in a record year.

The boom continued across the region, led by rising average single-family home prices in San Mateo County (up 23% year over year to $ 1.84 million), Alameda County (up 23% to $ 1.2 million) ) and Santa Clara County (plus 21st). % to $ 1.57 million) according to CoreLogic data. Seven of the nine counties in the Bay Area saw double-digit increases, with only Marin and Napa lagging behind.

2020 was a hot year for home sales, said East Bay Compass agent Paddy Kehoe, but 2021 was “extremely insane.”

The high demand and low inventory of homes for sale fueled the most expensive home market in the country. Rising prices have frustrated many potential buyers, while sellers achieved even higher returns on their properties and could choose from several offers. Historically low interest rates of around 3% also boosted the market.

The average price for an existing single-family home in the Bay Area reached $ 1.15 million in November, slightly below a high of $ 1.2 million in early summer.

The Bay Area reflected the rapid national growth in residential property values ​​in 2021. U.S. home values ​​rose 19% between October 2020 and October 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Value Index.

“Low-priced apartments are still in greater demand as entry-level buyers and investors continue to compete for the very limited supply,” CoreLogic economist Selma Hepp said in a statement. She expects 2022 to bring another strong year of price growth – around 7%.

Online broker Zillow estimates the average U.S. home price is now $ 316,000 – less than a third of the Bay Area median.

Bay Area agents say buyers expecting remote work to continue will be looking for additional bedrooms, yards, and family rooms across the area. Single-family home prices in San Francisco rose 14% to $ 1.8 million and in Contra Costa County rose 12% to $ 850,000.

Larger land and lots in Contra Costa and Alameda counties attract Silicon Valley workers who are less concerned about their commuting. And the prices are right.

“Silicon Valley buyers feel like they left Nordstrom and went to Macy’s,” said Kehoe, a veteran agent.

First-time buyers have been priced from even the cheaper communities in East Bay, but demand has barely slowed. Homeowners have been reluctant to sell, he said, with just a dozen new listings in popular Lamorinda.

“There’s nothing to sell,” he said. “There is nothing.”

Burlingame agent Jeff LaMont said offers from professional technology and biotechnology couples are among the factors driving rising prices. LaMont recently sold two homes in Millbrae Meadows for more than $ 500,000 above list prices. Upgraded properties come with a premium, and multiple offers and a quick sale with no defects are standard.

He noted that some interest in condominiums had returned – prices in the Bay Area rose 14% year over year to $ 800,000 – as middle-class buyers lowered expectations of buying a single-family home.

Most of the clients who come to San Mateo County work in the technology sector with income supplemented by equity grants, LaMont said. It’s tough competition for families outside of the tech industry. “If you’re the average Joe,” he said, “it doesn’t get any easier.”

Suburbs with close proximity to technology centers and good schools remain a big draw, agents say.

“Nobody has given up buying a home,” said Cupertino agent Ramesh Rao of his customers, “and none of my salespeople want to sell.”

Homeowners tell Rao they’d rather hold onto real estate and watch prices go up as steady profits have increased every month. Homes in coveted Silicon Valley communities, including Saratoga, Los Altos, and Cupertino, continue to be high on many tech pros’ wish lists. “People still have a thing for the South Bay,” he said.

Kehoe said he didn’t expect the market to stay as hot as it was before. The purchases and sales during the dot-com bubble and before the subprime mortgage crisis pale in comparison, even though today’s buyers are much better qualified.

He expects things to slow down in the coming months, but added, “I don’t know how to predict anything in California any more.”

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Bank of Canada real estate study shows investors increasing share of market

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BC saw a record number of new homes registered for construction in 2021, but Bank of Canada data suggests a significant proportion of these are likely to be bought by investors.

The Bank of Canada study used data from mortgage and credit bureaus to determine the percentage of homes in the country that were purchased by first-time buyers, repeat buyers, and investors.

It concluded that investors and repeat buyers account for an increasing proportion of mortgage-backed home purchases in Canada.

“Home purchases are increasingly being driven by existing owners,” write the authors of the study in their conclusion.

“It is within this group that investors have seen the largest increases in their share of home purchases during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Because the study looked at mortgage data, the authors said it doesn’t capture homes bought for cash or by businesses.

The study found that first-time buyers accounted for 47 percent of the market as of June 1, 2021, up from 53 percent at the start of 2015.

Meanwhile, both repeat buyers and investors in the market have increased. In the study, “repeat buyers” are those who buy a new home and sell their old one, while “investors” are those who buy a new home and hold on to their old home, often with the goal of renting out one of the properties as a source of income.

Repeat buyers represented 33 percent of the market in June 2021, up from 30 percent in January 2015, and investors represented 21 percent of the market, up from 18 percent.

Investor purchases grew the most during the COVID-19 pandemic, as home sales and prices soared. Investors bought twice as many homes in June 2021 as in June 2020, representing a 100 percent increase in the number of purchases.

Repeat buyers increased 66 percent over the same period, while purchases from first-time buyers increased 47 percent.

The Bank of Canada study was released the same week the BC government announced a record number of new enrollments in 2021.

“Data on registered new construction is collected at the beginning of a project, before building permits are issued, making it a leading indicator of BC housing activity,” the province said in a press release.

The latest figures from BC Housing show that 53,189 new homes were registered in BC in 2021. That’s a 67.5 percent increase from 2020 and the highest annual total since the provincial housing department began collecting data on new housing registrations in 2002.

The total includes 12,899 purpose-built rental apartments, a 47.7 percent increase over the previous year.

“This report demonstrates that when cities work with us to quickly secure building permits for these registered units, we can meet the challenge of increasing the supply of much-needed rental housing for individuals, families and seniors in BC,” said David Eby, BC Attorney General and Minister in Charge of Housing, in the provincial release.

“The numbers show that together we can respond to the more than 25,000 new people who have moved to British Columbia in the last three months in search of homes, and the thousands more we know who are still living coming,” Eby added. “We can only successfully meet this great challenge if we have committed partners in cities, the federal government, nonprofit organizations, First Nations and the private sector to get these Registered Homes built and open.”

However, the majority of newly registered homes are not rentals, and Bank of Canada data suggests a significant number of them will be purchased by investors as BC’s housing market continues to slip out of reach of many would-be newcomer buyers.

In an interview earlier this month, UBC director of urban economics and real estate Thomas Davidoff told CTV News that current conditions are benefiting people who already own properties rather than those trying to enter the market.

“If we continue to have an environment of very low interest rates and very high rental growth, then yeah, I think it’s going to get harder and harder for people to accumulate down payments and really be able to amortize mortgages over their working lives,” Davidoff said.

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Roaring U.S. housing market may cool, keep climbing as Fed ends emergency support

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Home prices in the U.S. have risen nearly 20% over the past year, giving home-owning families a major financial boost during the pandemic.

But Wall Street, a major source of home finance, sees major questions ahead for the red-hot housing market after the Federal Reserve shifted its focus to fighting inflation as the economy recovers from the pandemic.

“The increase in house prices contributed significantly to the growing net of households
worth and likely to decelerate due to higher interest rates and falling affordability,” wrote the fixed income strategy team at Brad Tank and Neuberger Berman in its first-quarter outlook.

“In addition, the state’s mortgage forbearance programs have not been extended and households benefiting from the relief must resume paying.”

The Fed’s monetary policy pivot in December includes a plan to raise interest rates faster than expected weeks ago, but also a faster end to its emergency asset purchase program, which is now likely to be March.

That leaves the market with “two key questions,” according to the Neuberger team, about how much mortgage bond supply others will have to absorb as the Fed shrinks its nearly $8.8 trillion balance sheet. And what happens to the surge in home prices and refinancing activity if interest rates rise as much as expected?

Read: Housing construction is in the grip of an inflationary storm – and it is being exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic

Why living isn’t like 2008

After the 2008 financial crisis, the government’s importance in the US housing market grew, in part through its mortgage guarantees, but also through the accumulation of borrowings in the $8.2 trillion agency mortgage market.

Agency mortgage bonds accounted for 66% of all housing debt in December, according to the Urban Institute. That made the sector a benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates, even during the recent refinancing boom, when lenders originated more than $1 trillion in home loans each quarter.

The government’s outsized presence in the mortgage market led to swaying in mortgage rates and lending standards after the subprime debacle a decade ago, but it has also guided government housing relief during the pandemic to stave off a wave of evictions and foreclosures.

Many borrowers, rocked by job losses in 2020, stayed in their homes rather than face late fees, collections and worse until the economy could get back on a firmer footing.

Now, forbearance rates on all home mortgages, even those held by banks, have fallen sharply since their pandemic peak, recently set at a low 1.7% in November (see chart), on higher wages and low unemployment.

Declining home loan arrears

Deutsche Bank

In terms of households, that means only about 835,000 homeowners were in forbearance in November, according to Deutsche Bank researchers, compared to 4 million before the pandemic.

Other key departures from the crisis of the last decade are a current housing shortage rather than an oversupply, coupled with a new era of institutional landlords in the single-family home market.

That means deep-pocketed private equity owner Zillow Z, -2.21%,
and other Wall Street-funded firms compete with families looking for property.

Mortgage experts say the momentum could help home prices continue to normalize in 2022, even as 30-year mortgage rates rise and homes become harder for families to afford.

See: High-poverty neighborhoods in Twin Cities are seeing an explosion of investor-owned homes. The Minneapolis Fed is now keeping track

“Rising interest rates won’t make house prices go negative, but they can certainly slow house price increases,” Scott Buchta, head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital, said in a phone call.

His forecast says prices will rise 6% to 10% this year, depending in part on where 30-year mortgage rates are headed.

Which rate is too high?

As it did after the 2008 crisis, for the past two years the Fed has loaded its balance sheet with government bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities during the pandemic to maintain liquidity flow and creditworthiness.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is now hoping for a “soft landing” by raising interest rates and tightening funding conditions to curb inflation without damaging jobs or triggering a recession.

Many on Wall Street now expect short-term interest rates to rise potentially four times this year, from 0% currently to 0.25%. However, longer-term rates are likely to depend on how aggressively the central bank reduces its holdings of mortgage bonds, Buchta said, particularly as the Fed works to bring annual inflation closer to its 2% target of 7% in December.

“I don’t think they want to shock the markets,” he said, noting that historically, house price inflation has been about 2% to 3% faster than inflation, or about 5% growth per year. “20% is not sustainable.”

However, every 100 basis point increase in the 30-year mortgage rate means a loss of purchasing power of about 13% for a homeowner who needs financing, Buchta estimates.

In other words, affordability, which is already an issue for many families looking beyond the market price, could get a lot worse.

See also: Interest rates are rising – but the Fed’s actions could make it easier to get a mortgage

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Naples’ Real Estate Market continues to boom but for how long?

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According to the Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR), the average selling price in Naples by the end of November 2021 was up 31% compared to November 2020, while inventory was down 76%.

Adam Vellano, Sales Manager in Naples at Compass Florida, states in the November 2021 NABOR report: “Year-on-year business growth of the kind we saw last year is simply not feasible in today’s market. But our topic is exactly what all other industries are facing right now: supply. We just become the store that sells out.”

Will the real estate market collapse?

“Adam’s observation is spot on. Stock is becoming very scarce which means it is a seller’s market. If you’re 65 or older, there’s never been a better time to start selling your home,” notes Tom Mann, Vice President of Moorings Park Communities and Senior Living Expert, “I’m seeing the ‘data’ in real time. In 2021, Moorings Park Communities saw record sales. And everyone who moved in sold their previous home in record time and for record prices.” Mann continues, “Most boomers and seniors that we deal with saw it as an opportunity to take money off the table before this real estate market collapses.”

Luxury keeps Naples’ boomers close by

“Obviously when you sell your home you have to move somewhere, and luckily for us, that choice was overwhelmingly a Moorings Park community. With prices ranging from just $421,000 to over $5 million, Moorings Park’s three communities were designed for those with sophisticated tastes – those who want a lifestyle surrounded by beautiful scenery, delicious meals, life-enriching activities and amenities, and the first and want the nation’s first prize-winning health and wellness programs,” notes Mann.

“One of the reasons we were drawn to Moorings Park Grande Lake was the clubhouse. You really feel like you are in a resort. The three restaurants, the pool, the fitness center, the salon and spa, the theater…everything. It’s spectacular!” says Marvin Easton, who recently sold his home in Port Royal.

All three Moorings Park communities not only offer the best and most diverse housing options in the entire Naples area, but also some of the most incredible views in all of Southwest Florida.

Location remains important

Location, location, location. When it comes to real estate, location is the most important variable. All three Moorings Park communities are just minutes from the wonderful restaurants and shops of 5th Avenue South and beautiful Naples beaches. And while location still reigns supreme in the real estate world, luxury accommodation and views come second.

Take Moorings Park, for example, which is just off Goodlette-Frank Boulevard. In a rare opportunity, a limited number of residences are currently available. Located just steps from the infamous clubhouse, these residences offer some of the finest panoramic views in the entire community.

Homes range in size from 882 to 2,700 square feet. They are perfect for those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle while living in a residence that overlooks the lushly landscaped grounds, parks and shimmering lakes. Moorings Park admission fees range from just $421,000 to over $4 million, with a 50% refund option available. “I expect all 12 of these residences will be reserved by May,” confides Mann. “So if you are interested in attainable luxury, now is your chance!”

Located directly on the Golden Gate, the residences at Moorings Park Grande Lake offer a magnificent view of a 75-acre lake framed by the manicured fairways and greens of the Naples Grande Golf Course just beyond.

Moorings Park Grande Lake offers two-bedroom plus den or three-bedroom plans ranging from 2,230 to 2,735 square feet under air, each with the area’s largest lanais creating stunning indoor and outdoor living perfect for entertaining.

Two fabulously designed penthouses measuring over 6,000 square feet were also recently released, one of which has already been sold. Moorings Park Grande Lake admission fees start at $1.6 million to over $5 million and are 70 percent refundable, a portion of which is tax deductible.

Moorings Park in Gray Oaks, located directly at Pulling Airport, offers the best of both worlds. In addition to all of the amazing amenities and services found at the luxurious community clubhouse, residents of Moorings Park in Gray Oaks also receive a sports membership at Gray Oaks Country Club, which includes access to three championship golf courses, eight tennis courts, bocce ball , pickleball, casual and fine dining restaurants, resort style swimming pool and spa, wellness center and much more.

“With so many great amenities available to residents of Moorings Park in Gray Oaks, they may have trouble deciding where to start their day — or how to end it,” comments Mann. “But that’s just one more reason why our Moorings Park at Gray Oaks members are having twice as much fun.”

Moorings Park at Gray Oaks consists of stunning residences overlooking three themed gardens as well as penthouse style residences in the clubhouse. The square footage of these spacious homes ranges from 2,067 to over 7,000 square feet. Entry fees start at $1 million, with a 50% refund option available.

Internationally renowned for the very best in wellness

In addition to on-site social and recreational facilities, Moorings Park Communities has also been driving innovation in retirement living for over 41 years, including the latest medical advances, wellness trends for baby boomers and what retirees could be doing to live their best life.

This month, the International Council on Active Aging recognized Moorings Park Communities as the top wellness-based communities in the Americas.

Seeing is believing

Moorings Park Communities will host an informational presentation explaining why the three Naples area campuses, Mooring Park, Moorings Park at Gray Oaks and Moorings Park Grande Lake, are simply the best in Southwest Florida. And you’re invited!

The presentation, hosted by Mann, will touch on the three campuses, all ideally located just minutes from downtown Naples, with an emphasis on the value of each and how accessible the good life is. Guests will be socially distancing and receive a gourmet packed lunch to go at the end of the presentation.

The informational presentation will take place on Wednesday, January 19 at 11:30 am at the Sheffield Theater at Mooring Park’s prestigious Center for Healthy Living® at 132 Moorings Park Drive. Moorings Park is located on Goodlett-Frank Road and adjacent to the Country Club of Naples.

Those interested in attending the informational presentation on the 19th are asked to call 239-232-3903 or visit MooringsPark.org/Events by Monday, January 17th.

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